On July 22-23, 2025, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee advanced two key Myanmar-related bills, marking a significant escalation in bipartisan legislative efforts to counter Myanmar’s military junta and support the democratic movement four years post-coup.

Bills Overview

H.R. 3190 – BRAVE Burma Act

Sponsor: Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI)
Co-sponsors: Betty McCollum (D-MN), Ann Wagner (R-MO), Seth Moulton (D-MA)
Introduced: May 5, 2025

H.R. 4423 – No New Burma Funds Act

Sponsor: Rep. Nikema Williams (D-GA)
Co-sponsor: Young Kim (R-CA)
Introduced: July 1, 2025

Key Provisions

BRAVE Burma Act – Core Elements

🎯 Target AreaπŸ“ Specific ActionπŸ’‘ Example
🏭 State EnterprisesSanctions on junta-linked businessesMyanmar Timber Enterprise, Myanmar Gems Enterprise
🏦 BankingSanctions on Myanma Economic BankFreeze assets, block transactions
✈️ Jet Fuel SectorTarget entities supplying aviation fuelCompanies refueling military aircraft
🌍 IMF RestrictionsLimit Myanmar’s voting power increasesPrevent junta from gaining more influence
πŸ‘₯ Diplomatic RoleCreate Special Coordinator positionDedicated State Dept. official for Myanmar
⏰ Time ExtensionExtend BURMA Act 2022 by 2 yearsContinue existing sanctions through 2027


No New Burma Funds Act – Core Elements

🎯 TargetπŸ“ ActionπŸ’‘ Impact
πŸ›οΈ World BankContinue funding pauseNo new loans/grants to junta
πŸ—³οΈ U.S. PositionUse voice and vote against fundingBlock multilateral financial support
πŸ“… TimelineMaintain 2021 coup responseKeep financial pressure since takeover

BRAVE Burma Act

βœ… PROS

  • 🎯 Targeted Approach: Focuses on military revenue streams, not civilians
  • 🌐 Comprehensive Coverage: Addresses multiple economic sectors
  • 🀝 Bipartisan Support: Shows unified U.S. stance
  • πŸ›οΈ Institutional Framework: Creates permanent diplomatic position
  • ⏰ Extended Timeline: Provides sustained pressure through 2027

❌ CONS

  • 🌏 Regional Cooperation Needed: ASEAN/China cooperation uncertain
  • πŸ› οΈ Enforcement Challenges: Jet fuel provision requires robust monitoring
  • βš–οΈ Limited Leverage: Sanctions may not change military behavior
  • πŸ’Ό Economic Spillover: Could affect legitimate businesses
  • πŸ• Time Factor: Democratic transition may take longer than sanctions timeline

πŸ’° No New Burma Funds Act

βœ… PROS

  • 🚫 Clear Message: Prevents legitimization of junta
  • πŸ’ͺ Multilateral Impact: Influences other World Bank decisions
  • πŸ“Š Proven Track Record: Builds on successful 2021 response
  • 🀝 International Coordination: Aligns with other donor countries


❌ CONS

  • πŸ‘₯ Humanitarian Risk: May limit development aid to people
  • πŸ—οΈ Infrastructure Gap: Reduces post-transition reconstruction capacity
  • 🌍 Regional Alternative: China/AIIB may fill funding gap
  • ⏱️ Timing Uncertainty: Unclear when restrictions would lift

Future Predictions

πŸ“ˆ Likely Outcomes (70-80% Probability)

πŸ›οΈ Legislative Process

  • βœ… House Passage: Both bills likely to pass House floor vote
  • πŸ€” Senate Consideration: May face scheduling delays but eventual passage likely
  • πŸ“ Presidential Signature: High probability of executive support

🌍 International Impact

  • 🀝 Allied Coordination: EU, UK, Canada likely to implement similar measures
  • πŸ’Ό Business Response: Multinational corporations may increase Myanmar exit
  • 🏦 Financial Isolation: Banking sector restrictions to expand

Moderate Scenarios (40-60% Probability)

🎯 Sanctions Effectiveness

  • πŸ“‰ Military Revenue: 20-30% reduction in junta economic access
  • β›½ Jet Fuel Impact: Significant disruption to air force operations
  • πŸ’° Alternative Funding: Junta seeks increased Chinese/Russian support

πŸ•ŠοΈ Political Developments

  • πŸ—³οΈ Opposition Unity: Sanctions provide diplomatic legitimacy to NUG
  • 🌏 ASEAN Pressure: Regional bloc may increase diplomatic pressure
  • πŸ‘₯ Civil Society: Strengthened international advocacy networks

⚑ Low Probability, High Impact (20-30% Probability)

πŸ”„ Regime Change Scenarios

  • πŸ’₯ Internal Military Split: Economic pressure accelerates junta fractures
  • πŸ•ŠοΈ Negotiated Transition: International pressure forces dialogue
  • πŸŒͺ️ Popular Uprising: Sustained protests gain momentum from foreign support

🌍 Unintended Consequences

  • πŸ›οΈ Institution Damage: Myanmar permanently excluded from international finance
  • πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Chinese Dominance: Beijing becomes sole major economic partner
  • πŸ’” Humanitarian Crisis: Economic isolation worsens civilian conditions

Timeline Predictions

Short-term (6-12 months)

  • πŸ›οΈ Q3 2025: House floor votes likely
  • πŸ›οΈ Q4 2025: Senate committee consideration
  • πŸ“‹ Q1 2026: Presidential signature expected

Medium-term (1-3 years)

  • πŸ’Ό 2026: Business exodus accelerates
  • 🌍 2027: International pressure peaks with BURMA Act extension
  • 🎯 2028: Sanctions effectiveness evaluation period

Long-term (3-5 years)

  • πŸ”„ 2028-2030: Potential transition negotiations
  • πŸ—οΈ Post-2030: Reconstruction and reintegration planning
  • πŸ“Š Ongoing: Regular sanctions review and adjustment

Strategic Recommendations

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ For U.S. Policymakers

  • 🀝 Strengthen Allied Coordination: Synchronize sanctions with partners
  • πŸ“Š Enhance Monitoring: Improve enforcement mechanisms
  • πŸ’¬ Maintain Dialogue: Keep channels open with civil society
  • 🎯 Target Refinement: Regular review of sanctions effectiveness

🌍 For International Community

  • 🀝 Multilateral Response: Coordinate through UN, ASEAN
  • πŸ’° Alternative Support: Direct aid to civil society, refugees
  • πŸ“’ Diplomatic Pressure: Maintain international attention
  • βš–οΈ Accountability Mechanisms: Support ICC, national courts

πŸ•ŠοΈ For Myanmar Opposition

  • 🀝 Unity Maintenance: Coordinate messaging with international supporters
  • πŸ“Š Data Collection: Document sanctions impact for policy refinement
  • πŸ’¬ Advocacy Continuation: Sustain lobbying efforts
  • 🎯 Strategic Patience: Prepare for extended struggle

Impact Assessment Matrix

🎯 SectorπŸ“ˆ Impact Level⏰ Timeline🎨 Confidence
🏦 Military BankingπŸ”΄ High3-6 months🟒 High
✈️ Air Force Operations🟠 Medium-High6-12 months🟑 Medium
🏭 State Enterprises🟠 Medium12-18 months🟑 Medium
🌍 International LegitimacyπŸ”΄ HighImmediate🟒 High
πŸ’° Development FundingπŸ”΄ HighOngoing🟒 High
πŸ‘₯ Civilian Economy🟑 Low-MediumVariableπŸ”΄ Low

Impact Levels: πŸ”΄ High | 🟠 Medium-High | 🟑 Medium | 🟒 Low
Confidence: 🟒 High | 🟑 Medium | πŸ”΄ Low